PAD addresses the sg2013 challenge Constructing for Uncertainty by coupling probability theory with parametric architectural and urban design.
Cluster participants will examine the relationship between probabilistic design methods and emerging urban environments. Through an application of statistical models, developed in partnership with Space Syntax, we will estimate contextual parameters and environmental data sets to be used for computational modeling. The probabilistic design method will consider each parameter as a probability distribution with an estimated mean and standard deviation, thus encoding uncertainty and variation within the modeling process (see Figure 1).
Statistical models will be developed through simulations of urban accessibility and land usage. Participants will then study how these factors interact with the probabilistic design scheme with the aim of investigating the volumetric implications of topics such as (but not limited to) solar access, daylighting, and solar envelopes within future developments.
The probabilistic modeling scheme will be applicable at multiple scales and cluster participants will investigate applications ranging from the single parcel to the structuring of communities.
Site specific locations within the Thames Gateway ‘corridor’ to the east of London will be used as areas for prototype developments. Contextual parameters will be identified at each site and estimated from available data and cluster participants will explore a range of site specific design models.